Mentiras y Traición
Sonoran Goddess
can't wait!!!
Anyone worried about Jimena?
- Thread starter mel150
- Start date
GringoZona
Guest
Stuart, you mind posting the link where you found that "Buoyweather" info?
Thanks!
Thanks!
jerry
Guest
Jimena Update
by DarkSyde
Mon Aug 31, 2009 at 03:40:04 PM PDT
Hurricane Jimena has undergone an impressive burst of intensification over the last 24 hours and is now essentially a Cat 5 storm with sustained winds of 155 mph. It is tracking toward the southern tip of the Baja peninsula and could make landfall as early as tomorrow evening. I'll be following the storm in detail with frequent NHC updates and temp/heat graphs here. For purposes of discussion we'll break it up into three scenarios:
Likely scenario -- the current forecast has Jimena making landfall as a major hurricane and tracking right over most of the Baja peninsula. That means hurricane force winds, torrential rain, massive storm surges along the coast, flash floods, and deadly mudslides. But the rugged Baja terrain should help throw a monkey wrench into the center of the storm.
Possible scenario -- Jimena stays mostly to the west of Baja and cuts up the Mexican-California coast. Sea surface temperatures drop off rapidly between Jimena's present position toward the west coast and San Diego. Odds are Jimena would weaken a great deal if it follows that path and become a tropical storm or relatively weak hurricane.
Worst case scenario -- it is within the realm of possibility that Jimena drifts east quicker than expected and into the narrow, warm Sea of Cortez where it either intensifies or remains a major hurricane, threading the watery needle all the way to landfall south of the California-Arizona border.
To sum it up: residents of southern and central Baja should either evac -- especially in low laying coastal regions or passes -- or be prepared to ride out a major, life threatening hurricane beginning tomorrow complete with loss of power, water, and emergency services lasting days or weeks. Residents along the lower west US coast and southern CA-AZ border, particularly those near sea level, gulches, and other flood prone areas should bookmark and follow the National Hurricane Center, the Weather Underground, and be prepared to quickly move to higher, stable ground and/or seek storm rated shelters.
by DarkSyde
Mon Aug 31, 2009 at 03:40:04 PM PDT
Hurricane Jimena has undergone an impressive burst of intensification over the last 24 hours and is now essentially a Cat 5 storm with sustained winds of 155 mph. It is tracking toward the southern tip of the Baja peninsula and could make landfall as early as tomorrow evening. I'll be following the storm in detail with frequent NHC updates and temp/heat graphs here. For purposes of discussion we'll break it up into three scenarios:
Likely scenario -- the current forecast has Jimena making landfall as a major hurricane and tracking right over most of the Baja peninsula. That means hurricane force winds, torrential rain, massive storm surges along the coast, flash floods, and deadly mudslides. But the rugged Baja terrain should help throw a monkey wrench into the center of the storm.
Possible scenario -- Jimena stays mostly to the west of Baja and cuts up the Mexican-California coast. Sea surface temperatures drop off rapidly between Jimena's present position toward the west coast and San Diego. Odds are Jimena would weaken a great deal if it follows that path and become a tropical storm or relatively weak hurricane.
Worst case scenario -- it is within the realm of possibility that Jimena drifts east quicker than expected and into the narrow, warm Sea of Cortez where it either intensifies or remains a major hurricane, threading the watery needle all the way to landfall south of the California-Arizona border.
To sum it up: residents of southern and central Baja should either evac -- especially in low laying coastal regions or passes -- or be prepared to ride out a major, life threatening hurricane beginning tomorrow complete with loss of power, water, and emergency services lasting days or weeks. Residents along the lower west US coast and southern CA-AZ border, particularly those near sea level, gulches, and other flood prone areas should bookmark and follow the National Hurricane Center, the Weather Underground, and be prepared to quickly move to higher, stable ground and/or seek storm rated shelters.
La Huerita
Guest
Jerry-- DarkSyde? The great orange satan??? I'm shocked, SHOCKED, I tell you! 
dmcauley
Guest
www.buoyweather.com It will only give you a 2 day forecast without a membership
It's a small world, indeed. I'm sure a lot of us would recognize each other by sight.
rockyptjoe
Guest
That should be a doozy if Jimena crosses Baja and continues up the Sea of Cortez....especially with a new moon ( I think it's Friday)....an interesting sea surge!!!
Seadweller
chum
you might see my photo in the post office... (just Joking)
Seadweller
chum
High tide is at 2:20 pm on saturday and one of the prediction models I saw show the storm hitting at 2:00 pm... interesting to say the least...
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Mentiras y Traición
Sonoran Goddess
Hurricane JIMENA Public Advisory
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 011152
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JIMENA HEADING TOWARD THE BAJA
PENINSULA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO SOUTHWARD ON
THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY AND PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA
EUGENIA...AND NORTH OF LORETO ON THE EAST COAST TO BAHIA SAN
JUAN BAUTISTA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THIS WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED
NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES...250 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT
315 MILES...505 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY FIVE STATUS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TODAY...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.6N 110.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 011152
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JIMENA HEADING TOWARD THE BAJA
PENINSULA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO SOUTHWARD ON
THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY AND PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA
EUGENIA...AND NORTH OF LORETO ON THE EAST COAST TO BAHIA SAN
JUAN BAUTISTA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THIS WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED
NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES...250 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT
315 MILES...505 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY FIVE STATUS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TODAY...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.6N 110.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
rockyptjoe
Guest
MT..I'm a "visual" type person....
Computer forecasts....
Computer forecasts....
jerry
Guest
Web cam view from Pices Sportfishing in Cabo (which may be missed)
http://pisces.linksysremoteview.com/img/main.cgi?next_file=main.htm
http://pisces.linksysremoteview.com/img/main.cgi?next_file=main.htm
Mentiras y Traición
Sonoran Goddess
Yours is definitely more entertaining and easy to look at...MT..I'm a "visual" type person....
Computer forecasts....
rockyptjoe
Guest
MT....I love the variety in the projected tracks!!! I guess until it hits land somewhere(like Baja), it is very difficult to predict.
GringoZona
Guest
http://www.tripadvisor.com/ShowTopic-g152515-i84-k3060190-Keep_an_eye_on_Jimena-Cabo_San_Lucas_Los_Cabos_Baja_California.html
I've been following that link above, quite a few locals in Cabo are posting updates and pics. The resorts are getting hit with heavy rains as we speak.
I've been following that link above, quite a few locals in Cabo are posting updates and pics. The resorts are getting hit with heavy rains as we speak.
anitacoffee
Guest
Maybe later today the forecast will include RP. Right now Jimena can't decide if she wants to be a Cat 4 or 5. :-o