The probability of predicting the future occurrence of a certain event is usually calculated from the historical occurrence of that event. Since there is no history of Americans being killed by cartel violence in Penasco, it is impossible to predict the future probability of occurrence of such an event. Any volunteers to establish an initial data point?
I have a theory. How sanguine you feel about this incident, is in direct proportion to how close you were to the location where it happened.
It's like I hear about a shooting in a movie theater in Colorado, and think, that's tragic, but it does not affect me. If I was in the theater at the time, I would feel completely different because it's happening to me!
It's easy to brush this off from a distance as a crazy outlier which it may or may not be. Drug violence is sporadic moving from one location to another. Lets hope it's not Rocky Point's turn to feel the heat from the Cartels.
Some people here are suggesting Rocky Point is a centre for Cartel opperations. if that's true, the probability of more drug violence escalates.
I am not trying to be alarmist. in these situations rumors fly around fast. The fact is we are not privy what the hell is going on behind the scenes.
Lastly if they knew where the cartel guys were, they could have waited to get them when they left the resort instead of going in guns blazing. The whole operation planes, boats, helicopter gunships, troops etc seems like total overkill to me.
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Nobody is suggesting, we're telling you. It's not an opinion or suggestion. And please stop saying cartels plural, there's only one. You have a serious misconception of who the cartel is. They are more of a community organizer than a ruthless blood thirsty cocaine selling gang that you would like them to be. If you have been traveling to Mexico for a long period of time chances are that you have shared a beer with someone that's affiliated or talked with someone that's affiliated and had absolutely no idea. When a small business owner in RP needs a little extra cash for rent or supplies or just needs a loan to start a new business they don't go to the bank. When something gets stolen, they dont call the police. When they cant afford rent, they dont call the landlord. Get the drift?