I used to read that blog until I realized that although it appears to be accurate It made me feel like all of Mexico was a battle ground, which is not the case.
Yea, if you go down the rabbit hole one night and read that blog for a couple of hours you can kind of start to get that feeling but honestly, I feel like if you have any knowledge of statistics and are rational and objective you know that this obviously isn't a representation of the entire country. Furthermore, you have dates and locality referenced so it's not like it's vague. You can actually search the blog with key word "Sonora" if you want to isolate your awareness to the part of Mexico that we frequent or that some of you live. Sonora search results turn up a lot of activity in Guaymas and neighboring Empalme. Ciudad Obregon also mentioned fairly frequently over the last year and a half.
The only article for anything near our region was for a meth lab bust in Sonoyta, September 19. Going back a couple of pages it appears there's only been approximately 10 different incidents in Sonora in the calendar year 2019. I didn't count because I'm not that invested so don't yell at me if the 10 count is off.
When you factor in the size of the state of Sonora and account for the recurrence of crime to specific locations I think it's pretty easy to not get carried away and feel unsafe.
But yea I wouldn't recommend smoking some of your finest HERB and reading through the articles on that site. You might start to get paranoid and never return to Mexico.
One more point of rationale. I think this is the first major incident in Culiacan since 2015 or at least from what I can see on Google and the previous incident was nowhere near this magnitude I don't believe. So if you figure you're living in Culiacan, 365 days a year and there has been 2 altercations in 4 years let's call it for the sake of comparison. Then, your probability for having an altercation on any one given day is.... 0.0013698630136986 or a third of 1 percent????????!!!!! Someone help me now LOL!! Holly sh!t I should have stayed in school.
Statistics get complicated because after that number you could theoretically break down what the odds are of you being on one of the streets or neighborhoods in the middle of the incident.
Totally unrelated and because I feel like writing tonight. Remember the Phoenix Freeway Shooter a year or two ago? I was watching the news during that fiasco and they're interviewing random citizens that had to use the I-10 West corridor for daily commute to work or school. These jack asses are telling the news that they are AFRAID for their lives to drive on the I-10 right now so they were using surface streets to commute and it was making their daily commute twice as long or more. I started thinking to myself that is the very definition of being irrational. I believe the Arizona Republic had the article but it went on to say that about 200 thousand vehicles travel that very stretch of the I-10 every day. So basically, your luck of getting hit by a bullet, your car that is, not even your person is about 1 in 200,000 on any given day during that stretch of freeway. Furthermore, the shooter did NOT stay in one location or one part of the I-10. There were multiple freeways and multiple areas of the valley. So when you factor that into the odds, it is a really really really low probability that you would be affected during this time frame. Those odds are just broken down to the calendar day.
Update: Official number from 2016. 293,718 vehicles per day on I-10 W near downtown. 293,718/24 = 12,238/hr = 203.96 cars/ minute...
https://www.google.com/search?q=how+many+vehicles+travel+the+i-10+in+phoenix+daily&oq=how+many+vehicles+travel+the+i-10+in+phoenix+daily+&aqs=chrome..69i57j33.15559j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Now naturally, shooters behavior and collected data could figure out a more certain time frame where the odds are greater but to my knowledge from reading articles during that time the shootings were really random. Different times of day, different freeways... We're getting into FBI profiler territory now LOLLLLLL...
I guess I'm finished now. Someone please correct me if my statistics logic is off. I should say that I have NEVER taken a statistics course although it would interest me.
